"The most comprehensible and comprehensive account of what is wrong in Afghanistan and what we need to do to correct it. This volume examines a vital question - the future of Afghanistan and its region - that must be addressed by the international community and the Obama team in particular."

Ahmed Rashid, best-selling author of "Descent into Chaos: the Unites States and the failure of nation building in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia and Taliban"
 

Stability in Afghanistan Requires Fundamental U.S. Policy Shift

US policy toward Afghanistan will require a fundamental change in order to achieve long-term stability in that country, according to The Future of Afghanistan , a new U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) collection of essays written by some of the world's top South Asia analysts. "A focused, coherent, and long-term approach to Afghan and regional stability is necessary to get Afghanistan out of its vicious cycle of insecurity, insurgency, impunity, and corruption" says the Institute's J Alexander Thier , who edited the volume.

Any effort to establish stability through troop increases alone will ignore larger issues and lead to short-term improvements at best. While recent violence in Afghanistan must be brought under control, the U.S. and the international community must get back to the basics by placing critical focus on rule of law, economic empowerment and the regional context.

Afghanistan has been beset by unrealistic, short-term thinking, the contributors conclude in The Future of Afghanistan. To address this, the essays discuss key problems and prospects over a ten-year horizon. The authors of The Future of Afghanistan say insecurity, whether due to insurgency, terrorism, regional meddling, or warlordism undermines the potential for progress on all other fronts in Afghanistan, and that success is impossible without competent Afghan security institutions. Of equal importance is the legitimacy of the Afghan government itself and its will and capacity to implement the rule of law.

The future of Afghanistan also depends upon the ability of its national and local leaders to organize for a common, positive purpose. The international community and the Afghan government must engage the capacity of the broader Afghan society, making them the engine of progress rather than unwilling subjects of rapid change. The new formula is one where the central government continues to ensure security and justice on the national level and uses its position to channel international assistance to promote the rule of law and development at the community level.

Finally, the U.S. must work with Afghanistan's neighbors to create a regional environment conducive to Afghanistan's success. Regional competition continues to undermine Afghanistan's long-term prospects, whereas renewed regional cooperation could provide a significant security and economic boost in Afghanistan, Pakistan and the region as a whole.

What is needed now is a coherent strategy to bridge the gap between conflict and democracy, between burkas and women's equality, between tribal councils and a Supreme Court. The next decade must be about building those bridges. The first step is to realign joint priorities and expectations. The solution going forward is a melding of top-down and bottom-up approaches, creating a condominium of central government institutions addressing larger challenges beyond the capacities of communities while enabling local capacity to deal with other issues. Under such a framework, central government would be responsible for those issues requiring collective action, such as fighting insurgents, building primary roads, regulating media, and protecting basic rights. Community-based structures would be heavily engaged in local governance issues such as water management, agricultural development, and dispute resolution. Civil society and private enterprise would expand media, protection of basic rights, and revitalization of culture. Such an approach would increase citizen participation, develop civil society, improve the delivery of basic services at the local level, and enhance the legitimacy of both national and local institutions.

The volume was released as part of USIP's January 8 Passing the Baton conference in Washington, D.C.

This book is available for download here (.pdf 7.8 MB).

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